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| #941535 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 AM 23.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 Kirk`s cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the deep convective bands over the western semicircle of the circulation. Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near the eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the intensity at 35 kt. The storm will be moving over warmer waters with fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening is anticipated in the short term. Later in the forecast period, increasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48 hours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global guidance thereafter. The latter models suggest that Kirk could open up into a trough when it nears the Caribbean. Center fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and the initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt. A well-defined mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even faster westward motion over the next few days. Near the end of the forecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a slowing of the forward speed. The official forecast is a blend of the latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and is also similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 9.3N 30.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 10.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 10.7N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 11.2N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 12.3N 57.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 13.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
