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| #941537 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 23.Sep.2018) TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global models have been advertising for the past several days has materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie have been initiated. Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds are removed from the center. However, there is a chance as usual that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the next day or so is not out of the question. Global models do indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low. This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time. Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie will likely move east until it becomes absorbed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 33.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
