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| #941896 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 26.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 53.5W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe and Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves through the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening. Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
