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| #941912 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 26.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 Kirk is maintaining a CDO of strong convection over its center, but banding features are limited. Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with scatterometer data indicate that the storm has strengthened a little and the maximum winds are now near 45 kt. The SHIPS model output shows a large increase in westerly shear over Kirk within 18-24 hours. Therefore not much additional strengthening is likely, and a weakening trend should commence in a day or so. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus. Strong westerly shear is likely to continue to adversely affect Kirk while it moves over the Caribbean, and the system should weaken into a depression within 72 hours or sooner, and become a remnant low later in the forecast period. The motion is a little north of due west, or 280/16 kt. The steering pattern for Kirk is rather straightforward. A subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern North Atlantic is expected to persist and retrograde slightly westward over the forecast period. The flow on the southern side of the high should steer Kirk on a westward to west-northwestward track for the next several days. The official track forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, and is very similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.1N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 12.7N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.7N 58.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 15.2N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 16.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 16.0N 76.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
