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| #942013 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 27.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Kirk has not changed much overnight. Although the storm is producing a large area of deep convection, the cloud pattern is not very well organized with the center located near the southwestern edge of the thunderstorms. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters passed through the northeastern quadrant of Kirk a few hours ago and found winds to support the same intensity of 45 kt. In addition, quality control of a ship report that came in around the same time also supports that intensity. Another Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate Kirk later this morning. A large fetch of strong upper-level westerly or southwesterly winds are over the entire Caribbean Sea, and Kirk will be moving into these conditions during the next few days. These very hostile winds aloft should cause Kirk to steadily weaken, decouple, and ultimately dissipate in 3 or 4 days. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that dissipation could occur even sooner. The intensity models are in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is the same as the previous one. Center fixes from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Kirk is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt. A continued west-northwest motion but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days as Kirk moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The latest models have not changed much, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast takes Kirk across the Lesser Antilles later today as a tropical storm. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.2N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 14.9N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.6N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 16.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 16.3N 71.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
