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| #942046 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 27.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Increasing vertical shear is having a notable influence on the structure of Kirk, as visible satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of the cyclone is now exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Nonetheless, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters still found strong winds in that convection. In fact, based on SFMR and flight-level winds from the Hurricane Hunters, the advisory intensity of 45 kt may be a conservative estimate. With the increasing vertical decoupling of the vortex and even stronger shear associated with upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean Sea, weakening is likely over the next couple of days. Kirk should degenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, if not sooner. The official forecast is close to the multi-model intensity consensus, IVCN. The storm continues moving west-northwestward, with a current motion estimate of 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure area just to the east of Florida is likely to steer Kirk on a west-northwestward to westward course for the next few days. Some further slowing of forward speed is expected as the high weakens slightly. The NHC track forecast is very close to the latest HFIP corrected consensus prediction. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although Kirk is becoming disorganized, strong winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds are still likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later today. Higher winds are especially likely over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 14.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 14.9N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 15.5N 65.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 67.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 16.0N 72.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
