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| #942117 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 27.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 Satellite images, radar data, aircraft data, and surface observations all indicate that Kirk`s center made landfall on St. Lucia around 0030 UTC. However, that fact is of minimal consequence since most of the inclement weather is displaced more than 60 n mi to the east of the center due to continued 30-40 kt of westerly shear. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Kirk, and SFMR winds within the convection to the east still appear to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Since the shear affecting Kirk is not expected to abate during the next couple of days, the storm`s maximum winds are forecast to gradually decrease, as is shown by all of the intensity guidance. In fact, the global models continue to insist that Kirk`s circulation will open up into a trough, possibly within 24-36 hours. To maintain continuity with the previous forecast, the new NHC intensity forecast continues to show Kirk weakening to a tropical depression in 36 hours but then shows dissipation by 48 hours. Kirk`s center has been moving south of due west during the past 6-12 hours, possibly due to some interaction with the mountains of St. Lucia, and the initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt. Once the center moves farther from the island, however, it is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion and increase in speed a bit as it comes under the influence of stronger ridging to its north. The NHC official forecast follows the general trend shown by the track guidance, and at least speed-wise, it is very close to the previous forecast and the HCCA model. However, given the recent motion of the center, the new forecast is nudged southward and lies south of the most reliable track models and consensus aids. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind that, although Kirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area through early Friday. Higher winds are especially likely over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 13.8N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.3N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 14.9N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.3N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
