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| #942130 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 28.Sep.2018) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 200 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 62.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located over the eastern Caribbean Sea near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 62.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), but the cyclone should resume a west to west-northwestward motion later today with an increase in speed into the weekend. On the forecast track, Kirk`s center, or its remnants, will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next few days. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) mainly to the east of the center. Barbados has been reporting tropical storm force winds during the past couple of hours. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area and should continue to spread across the remainder of the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during he next several hours. Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila |
