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| #942146 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 28.Sep.2018) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018 Kirk is a highly sheared cyclone with most of the associated weather well east of the center. Despite the lack of organization of the cloud pattern, a reconnaissance plane a few hours ago, reported winds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Another plane will be investigating Kirk early this morning and will determine how much the cyclone has weakened. The upper-level winds are highly unfavorable across the entire Caribbean basin, and the most likely scenario is for Kirk to open up into a trough sooner rather than later as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast keeps the cyclone for another 24 hours, but dissipation could occur much earlier. Satellite imagery, radar from Martinique, and plane fixes indicate that Kirk jogged toward the west-southwest earlier. This could be an indication that the center is becoming less defined, but the bottom line is that the system as a whole is expected to move westward about 10 kt since it is embedded within the trade winds. This is the solution provided by most of the models, which all show a weakening trough propagating westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind that most of the weather associated with Kirk is displaced to the east of the center. These winds and rains are still likely to continue spreading westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area for the next several hours. Higher winds are anticipated especially over elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 13.2N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 13.2N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
