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| #9422 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 21.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 1500Z TUE SEP 21 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 48.0W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 50 KT.......125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 275SE 175SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 48.0W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 48.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. 50 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 49.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.9N 46.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...225NE 225SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT...275NE 275SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z FORECASTER LAWRENCE |
