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| #942570 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 01.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 Leslie is gradually becoming better organized. A large band of deep convection exists on the west side of the circulation and some fragmented bands are beginning to form on the east side. Overall, Leslie appears more symmetric than it has been during the past couple of days due to a decrease in wind shear. Despite the improved appearance, the satellite intensity estimates are largely unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, near the high end of the estimates. Since Leslie is forecast to be in a low wind shear environment and expected to move over slightly higher SSTs during the next couple of days, slow strengthening is predicted. Most of the models show Leslie becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit. By late in the week and this weekend, Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over its previous track, where it has upwelled cooler waters. These less conducive oceanic conditions should cause a slow decay. Leslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a mid-level high, and a continued slow south to southwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to move north-northeastward but only at a slightly faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday, they are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 33.2N 54.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 32.7N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 30.7N 55.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.4N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 32.5N 55.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 35.7N 54.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 37.4N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
