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| #942643 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 01.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018 Satellite imagery shows that the convective organization of Leslie has changed little during the past several hours. The eye-like feature, however, has become a little more distinct and symmetric. The subjective and objective intensity estimates haven`t changed though, and the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be a southwestward drift, or 220/4 kt. Leslie is forecast to continue drifting generally southwestward through the 36-hour period in relatively weak mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a ridge extending eastward from the southeast United States to near Bermuda. Afterwards, an amplifying mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from the Canadian Maritimes should induce a north-northeastward to northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed. The NHC forecast is adjusted just to the left of the previous forecast track beyond 36 hours to align more with the TVCN consensus guidance. The intensity forecast philosophy remains basically the same, this evening. Strengthening is still expected during the next 36 hours and Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday tonight, as indicated by the statistical and multi-model intensity guidance. Near the 72-hour period, Leslie should begin a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone moves back over cooler oceanic temperatures and some invading drier mid-level air, associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough which stabilizes the surrounding environment. The official intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus aids. The forecast wind radii have been adjusted based on the RVCN (GFS/ECMWF/HWRF) multi-model consensus. Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the Bahamas. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily in the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 32.4N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 31.3N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 30.2N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 29.9N 56.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 30.6N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 34.4N 55.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 37.3N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
