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| #942732 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 02.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018 Leslie is almost a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that a ring of deep convection now nearly surrounds Leslie`s large ragged eye. A pair of ASCAT passes from this morning showed maximum winds around 55 kt. Based on that data and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Leslie is expected to remain over relatively warm water and in favorable atmospheric conditions for another day or two, so continued gradual strengthening is forecast during that time period. Based on the improved organization this afternoon and the model guidance, Leslie is forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or early Wednesday. After a couple of days, the system is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C, and those unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with some increase in shear this weekend should cause a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and COAMPS-TC models, but this forecast is a tad higher than the previous one. The tropical storm is still losing latitude, with the latest initial motion now estimated to be 205/8. This south-southwestward motion is expected to slow down tonight, and Leslie will likely come to a stall on Wednesday in very weak steering currents. After that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause Leslie to move northward on Thursday and Friday. A turn to the northeast and then east is forecast to occur by the weekend when the storm moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south and west of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 30.1N 56.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.7N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 30.7N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 32.6N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 36.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 37.2N 54.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 37.0N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
