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| #9428 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE AS THE WELL DEFINED EYE FROM A FEW HOURS AGO IS NOT SEEN THIS MORNING. ALSO THE CDO FEATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED AND IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 110 KT. THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS LIGHT SHEAR AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL KARL REACHES COLD SSTS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.4N 48.0W 110 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 48.8W 120 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 25.5N 49.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 28.0N 48.6W 110 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.9N 46.9W 105 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 38.2N 44.4W 85 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1200Z 50.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
