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| #942820 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 03.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 Leslie continues to slowly strengthen. Satellite images indicate that the deep convection has been gradually increasing in coverage and become more symmetric around the large ragged eye of the hurricane. An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial wind speed to 70 kt. Leslie still has a little more time to strengthen as it should remain over waters warmer than 26 deg C and in favorable atmospheric conditions for about another day. Thereafter, the hurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler water, which should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The hurricane has come to a stall, as expected, in very weak steering currents. The combination of a shortwave trough moving off the New England coast and a building ridge to the southeast of Leslie should cause the hurricane to begin moving northward this evening. This motion with an increase in forward speed should continue through Friday. By the weekend, the hurricane is expected to turn to the east due to a broad trough over the north Atlantic. The models remain in very good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast track. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the next day or two across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 29.5N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 30.0N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 31.6N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 35.6N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 36.9N 56.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 36.7N 49.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
