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| #942881 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 03.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 It is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that has moved very little during the past few days and has not changed significantly in structure either. Leslie`s cloud pattern is not very impressive with a large ragged-eye feature (if you can call that an eye) surrounded by weaker convection than earlier today. Although Dvorak numbers are lower tonight, we can still hold the intensity at 70 kt in this advisory. Most likely, the convection will reinvigorate tonight, but no important changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone reaches cooler waters. Leslie has begun to move northward at about 7 kt, and most likely the cyclone will continue on that track for the next two days. By then, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and this flow will force the cyclone to make a sharp turn to the east. Track models are in remarkably good agreement with the initial northward turn and with eastward turn. However, during the last portion of the forecast models diverge, and the confidence in the track forecast is not very high. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 30.6N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 32.0N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 34.2N 57.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 36.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 37.0N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 36.5N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 35.5N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
