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| #942912 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 04.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during the past several hours, and it continues to be a little thin on convection within its eyewall. Another more impressive band of convection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of the center of the ragged eye. The initial intensity remains 70 kt for this advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate. Leslie`s center has reached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and these marginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decrease in the cyclone`s winds during the next several days. The new NHC intensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previous forecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICON intensity consensus. Leslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between a shortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This northward motion should continue for the next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between two mid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies to the north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48 hours. By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influence from the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it to move a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the north Atlantic. Like the intensity forecast, no major changes were required to the official track forecast, which is merely an update to the previous NHC prediction. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 31.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 33.0N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 35.1N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 36.3N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 36.3N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 34.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
