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| #942940 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 04.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie continues to have an inner area of convection near the center, with a larger convective band present about 120 n mi from the center and additional banding in the northwestern quadrant. Since the last advisory, the central convection has become less symmetric and the eye has become less defined. Based on this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 65 kt. While the vertical shear should remain light through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the center away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C temperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the next several days. Since there is little change in the guidance, the new intensity forecast is again an update of the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 355/8. In the short term, Leslie will be steered northward with some increase in speed between a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda. A decrease in forward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south and a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone. Beyond 48 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to east-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, although some spread in both direction and speed appears by 120 h. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is mostly a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 32.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 34.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 35.8N 58.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 58.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 36.8N 56.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 36.0N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 33.5N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
