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| #943007 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 04.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie lacks an inner core and now consists of a vigorous large circulation with small outer bands of shallow to moderate convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to yield a lower intensity, and the winds have been reduced to 55 kt in this advisory based on a recent ASCAT pass. The shear does not appear to be a problem for Leslie, and the cyclone is forecast to be moving over SSTs which appear to not be cool enough to result in significant weakening. In fact, the average of the intensity guidance suggests that Leslie basically will be a 50-kt cyclone through the forecast period and so does the NHC forecast. Leslie is moving northward or 350 degrees at 10 kt steered by the southerly flow on the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In about 24 to 36 hours, the storm will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern will force Leslie to make a sharp turn to the east and even to the east-southeast with no change in forward speed. Track guidance is in extremely good agreement with this solution for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the models vary significantly in speed, but since the cyclone will be embedded in the westerlies, the NHC forecast maintains the eastward progression of Leslie as indicated in the previous forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 34.9N 57.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 36.2N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 37.2N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 37.5N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 36.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 33.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
