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| #943094 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 05.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 Leslie is currently maintaining a small central convective feature and an outer convective band in the southeastern semicircle. The various satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt. This is still a little above the estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. While no data was available from the inner core, scatterometer overpasses this morning suggests that Leslie has changed little in size since last night. Leslie has now slowed its forward motion and is starting to turn more eastward, with an initial motion of 030/3. A turn to the east is expected during the next 24 h, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. A general motion toward the east-southeast or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest guidance again shifted southward, and the new forecast track, which is in best agreement with the TVCN consensus model, is shifted to the south of the previous track The forecast track again takes Leslie over cooler waters around day 2, into slightly stronger shear around day 3, and over warmer water with decreasing shear around days 4-5. However, the structure of Leslie is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity either up or down. Thus, the intensity forecast, which has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, follows the trend of the previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening near 48 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 36.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 36.7N 57.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 36.4N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 35.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 34.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 30.0N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
