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| #943215 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 06.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 The central convection associated with Leslie is still well organized and concentrated. A recent SSMIS image shows that Leslie`s inner core is better defined resembling an eyewall. However, Dvorak estimates still support an initial intensity intensity of 50 kt. Leslie should weaken slightly during the next 24 to 36 h as the cyclone crosses patches of cooler SSTs. After that time, the track takes the center back over warmer waters, but the shear could increase a little. Only minor adjustments are made to the previous intensity forecast, and the NHC forecast follows very close the model consensus which suggests slight strengthening by the end of the forecast period. Leslie continues to be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the east or 100 degrees at 10 kt. These westerlies are forecast to be modulated by the passage of short waves, and the flow pattern will initially keep Leslie on east to east-southeast track for most of the forecast period. By the end of the period a turn to the northeast is anticipated. Models are not in great agreement but they are consistently showing the eastward progression of the cyclone. The NHC forecast is very close to the models consensus, and is basically in the middle of the track envelope. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 37.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 35.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 28.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven/Avila |
