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| #943397 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 07.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018 Leslie`s cloud pattern consists of a large and vigorous circulation, but the convection is shallow at this time. Dvorak numbers only support an initial intensity of 45 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, while Leslie is over fairly cool SSTs. After that time, Leslie will encounter warmer waters, and since the shear is low, some re-intensification is anticipated. Leslie will likely become a hurricane once again by the end of the week as indicated by the guidance. Leslie is still moving east-southeastward at about 11 kt. Since Leslie is embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, this general motion will likely continue for the next 2 days or so. This is consistent with most of the track guidance, which continue to show a southeastward motion of the cyclone during that period. Another shortwave trough in the westerlies will bypass the cyclone, but will modify the steering flow, and Leslie should then turn to the east-northeast. It should be emphasized that confidence in the track forecast remains low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 35.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 35.2N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 33.8N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 28.5N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 30.0N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 24.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
