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| #943432 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 08.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to the Suwanee River Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday night... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may lead to life threatening flash floods. Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches. Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
