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| #943836 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 10.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Nadine continues to gradually strengthen. Microwave images indicate that the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a concentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement with 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Nadine has about another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable atmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over warm waters. The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period. Thereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in southwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening. The combination of strong shear, drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open into a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner. The compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the center is a little to the right of the previous forecast track. A continued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the east-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in. After that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left until dissipation. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the right of the previous one due to the more northward initial motion and position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 12.1N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 12.8N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 13.9N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 16.0N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 17.3N 38.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
