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| #943902 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 10.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Leslie has continued to get better organized this morning, and several recent microwave overpasses indicate that the hurricane is maintaining a well-defined mid-level eye. However, objective and subjective intensity estimates have not increased, so the intensity has been held at 65 kt. All of the intensity guidance forecasts that Leslie will resume intensifying later today. Given that the hurricane is located in a low shear environment and crossing over the warmest waters it has encountered in days, this seems very likely. No change was made to the intensity forecast through 48 h. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is still tied to the track forecast, and the farther south and west Leslie remains, the stronger it will likely be. Extratropical transition also can not be ruled out, which would likely result in a higher intensity by day 5 that indicated by the NHC forecast. The official intensity forecast is still close to the model consensus through day 5, but a large range of possibilities exists by that time, from Leslie becoming a weak post-tropical low, to maintaining near hurricane strength. The spread in the track guidance is still very large and confidence in the track forecast is low. The most recent ECMWF ensemble has a 5-day spread of over 1500 n mi, while the 5-day GFS ensemble spread is over 1300 n mi. Leslie is forecast to slow down today and turn toward the east-northeast. A faster motion in that direction is anticipated by tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the northwest. Leslie will then either undergo extratropical transition and lift northward, continue westward and become a remnant low, or separate from the trough and turn back west. The NHC forecast is near the track consensus at all times and no large changes to the forecast were made since the future track of the cyclone has not become more clear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 27.8N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 27.8N 41.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 28.4N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.6N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 30.7N 31.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 31.5N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 29.5N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 27.0N 26.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
