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| #943983 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 10.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018 Leslie has held nearly steady since this morning. Recent microwave data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly well-defined inner-core that has persisted, though the deepest convection has fluctuated since last night. Satellite intensity estimates have fluctuated with the convection, but still support an initial value of 65 kt for this advisory. The last few IR and visible images before sunset suggest that Leslie may be developing a banding eye, and it`s possible the intensity estimate is a little conservative. The track uncertainty is hopefully beginning to decrease a little. The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensembles are converging on a solution where Leslie accelerates east-northeastward on the south side of a mid-latitude trough, before separating from the trough over the weekend. The cyclone could then turn southward, and eventually back westward as a much weaker tropical cyclone or remnant low. This is generally consistent with previous NHC forecasts, so no large changes were required to the NHC forecast which is heavily based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Leslie is still expected to strengthen soon, and there has been no significant change to the intensity forecast. By 72 h, if not sooner, the hurricane will begin to encounter colder ocean waters and high shear, which should cause it to weaken. If Leslie follows the forecast track, it is possible that the system could become a post-tropical remnant low by early next week, and this is forecast by some of the global models. However, this is not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast and Leslie`s strength and status early next week will likely heavily depend on its track at that time. The official forecast is close to the intensity consensus at all forecast hours, and the intensity model spread is not very large. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 27.8N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 28.0N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 29.0N 38.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 30.4N 33.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 32.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 30.0N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 27.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
