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| #944024 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 PM 10.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...STORM FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 84.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia tonight, and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h) were recently measured at the Albany Georgia airport. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...4-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3-5 ft Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 3 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over south-central Georgia tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
