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| #944050 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 10.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF PANAMA CITY AND SOUTHEAST OF KEATON BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO KEATON BEACH FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 83.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 83.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 160SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 83.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
