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| #944103 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 11.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED ALONG THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 82.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 50SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 82.5W AT 11/0900Z...INLAND AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 83.2W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.4N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 140SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.9N 74.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 40.9N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.1N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 48.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 49.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 82.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
