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| #944131 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:56 AM 11.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 81.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central South Carolina this morning, then move across portions of central and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this afternoon and this evening, and move into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post- tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A coastal marine observing site at Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston, South Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of eastern and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. These conditions will spread northward across central and eastern portions of North Carolina today. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and southeast Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
