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| #944161 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 11.Oct.2018) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Surface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of Michael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will be moving into central North Carolina shortly. Sustained winds near the center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports of sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South Carolina within the outer circulation of the storm. It is assumed that these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest winds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern portions of South Carolina this morning. As Michael's circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is expected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. Late tonight, Michael will quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global models indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen after moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The post-tropical portion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. The storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt. Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east- northeastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic during the next couple of days. There has been little change to the guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the previous advisory. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia. 2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with sustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the Carolinas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 34.7N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 12/0000Z 36.6N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1200Z 39.3N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/0000Z 42.8N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 45.5N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z 48.2N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1200Z 49.0N 9.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
