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| #944167 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 11.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Nadine is strongly sheared and the low-level center of the tropical storm is now completely exposed, nearly 50 n mi to the southwest of the nearest deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased since last night, so the intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This value is still on the high side of the available intensity estimates, but Nadine`s intensity has generally been near the top of the intensity estimates for the past few days. Steady weakening is still anticipated because the shear is forecast by all models to increase further during the next day or two. By 72 h, if not sooner, all of the dynamical models forecast that Nadine will have lost its deep convection and degenerated into a trough of low pressure. No significant changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. Nadine is still moving northwestward at 7 kt. Since Nadine`s surface circulation has become completely exposed and the vortex is likely becoming very shallow, a quicker turn toward the west-northwest and west is now shown in the official track forecast. The track forecast has therefore been adjusted toward the southwest at most forecast times, but is still close to HCCA and TVCN through the short forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 14.1N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.8N 34.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 15.5N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.9N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
