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| #944184 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:41 PM 11.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 80.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM S OF GREENSBORO NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 80.0 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move across central and eastern North Carolina today, move across southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, primarily over water south and east of the center. Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), mainly to the south and east of the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently reported at North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) has been reported at Wilmington, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of northeastern South Carolina and will spread northward over central and eastern North Carolina through this evening. Tropical storm force wind gusts are expected across portions of North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon and tonight. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from northern South Carolina, west-central to northwestern North Carolina, and into south-central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through this evening across central and eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown |
