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| #944218 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 11.Oct.2018) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 Nadine continues to be strongly sheared. A brief burst of deep convection occurred near the center of the cyclone a few hours ago, but the center has since become exposed once again. The initial intensity has been decreased to 45 kt based primary on the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. Additional weakening is likely over the next day or so while Nadine remains strongly sheared. The regional and global models now show Nadine degenerating into a trough of low pressure within 48 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC forecast. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward with an initial speed of 7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Nadine will continue on a similar heading and speed for the next 24 h or so, before turning toward the west as it weakens. The NHC forecast has been nudged to the southwest at most forecast points, and is generally near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 14.5N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.9N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.5N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 15.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
