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| #944221 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 11.Oct.2018) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 78.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 200SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 78.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.1N 74.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.2N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 360SE 270SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 47.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 210SE 210SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.5N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 46.5N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 78.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
