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| #944302 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:50 AM 12.Oct.2018) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL STORM... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 75.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An east- northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the coast of the United States during the next few hours and then begin to race east-northeastward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is expected to continue to strengthen while becoming a post-tropical low during the next few hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center. The National Ocean Service station on the York River recently reported sustained winds of 62 mph (99 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) at an elevation of 48 ft (15 m), while the Norfolk Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). Also, a Weatherflow station on the Chesapeake Light Tower recently reported sustained winds of 81 mph (130 km/h) and a wind gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) at an elevation of 135 ft (41 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. Gale- to storm-force winds are occurring over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula, and these conditions will continue for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across southeast Virginia, southeast Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Isolated maximum totals of 7 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
