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| #944338 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:27 AM 12.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018 Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery, although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial eyewall is present under the overcast. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. The initial motion is now 065/24. The guidance is in good agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so. After that, there is a major model divergence. The GFS, ECMWF, and the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain. On the other hand, the UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the south and then back to the west. Since the previous forecast showed a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also follow this scenario. However, it is shifted well to the east of the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models. Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low confidence. Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island during the next 24-36 h. After that, the intensity forecast is dependent on what track the cyclone takes. If it follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate. If it follows the UKMET scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air entrainment should cause weakening. Since the track forecast is closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by 72 h. However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the uncertainties in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.9N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.1N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 34.2N 20.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 34.6N 15.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 34.0N 13.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 32.0N 12.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z 30.0N 13.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 28.0N 18.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
