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| #944469 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 13.Oct.2018) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 ...LESLIE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE IBERIAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 16.7W ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM E OF THE AZORES ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM E OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Madeira Island Interests in the Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 16.7 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h). A motion toward the east-northeast with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island this morning, approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula today, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula tonight, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Madeira Island this morning. Post-tropical Leslie will bring winds to near hurricane-force to portions of Portugal late today or tonight, and gale-force winds to portions of western Spain late today through early Sunday. Please see products from your local meteorological service for more information on this hazard. RAINFALL: Leslie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) with localized amounts up to 5 inches (125 mm) across portions of Portugal and Spain this weekend. This rainfall may lead to some instances of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect the Azores, Madeira Island, and the Canary Islands through the weekend and will begin to affect the Atlantic coasts of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco today, continuing into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
