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| #944470 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 13.Oct.2018) TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018 Satellite imagery suggests that Leslie has started extratropical transition. The mid-level eye seen earlier in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery has become less distinct, and it is continuing to separate from the low-level center. In addition, colder air is entraining into the western and southern sides of the circulation. However, a sizable cluster of convection persists to the northeast of the center, indicating that the cyclone is still tropical at this time. The large-scale models forecast that Leslie will likely complete transition in 12 to perhaps 18 h, and that the associated winds should remain at or near hurricane force until the center moves over the Iberian Peninsula. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and the cyclone should dissipate as it becomes part of a broad low pressure area over Spain between 36-48 h. The initial motion is 070/33 as Leslie is now well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A continued east-northeastward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the next 36 h. This should bring the center of Leslie onshore on the Iberian Peninsula in about 18 h and into western Spain by about 24 h. There is little change in either the track guidance or the track forecast from the last advisory. The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain will handle hazard information for their respective countries via local weather products. Key Messages: 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to portions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical cyclone. Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of western Spain tonight and Sunday. 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches) across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash flooding. 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 36.2N 16.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 37.7N 11.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 14/0600Z 39.6N 6.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 41.3N 2.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
