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| #946179 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 28.Oct.2018) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 Deep convection near the center of Oscar has diminished somewhat over the past several hours. However, there are tightly curved cloud bands very near the center indicating a well-organized cyclone. Given that the central convection has not increased, the current intensity estimate is held at 55 kt which is a little above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates but close to the value indicated by the previous scatterometer data. Oscar should remain in a moderate vertical shear environment, and over 26-27 deg C SSTs, for the next couple of days which would allow for some strengthening. The official forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus and calls for the system to become a hurricane soon. Near or just beyond 96 hours, the shear is forecast to increase substantially and Oscar should begin to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The storm has been moving southwestward, or 235/13 kt, on the southeastern side of a northeast to southwest-oriented mid-level ridge. The ridge is likely to build to the north of Oscar within 12 to 24 hours, resulting in a turn toward the west. The cyclone should then turn toward the northwest and north as the ridge shifts eastward and a trough moves off the eastern U.S. coast. In the latter half of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward in the flow ahead of the trough. The official track forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, and similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 25.0N 52.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 25.0N 54.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 56.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 26.4N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 27.9N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 34.6N 53.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 42.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 50.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
