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| #946295 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 29.Oct.2018) TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018 The cloud pattern of Oscar has continued to become better organized, with a growing CDO and convective banding features are better defined, especially over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Upper-level outflow is gradually becoming better established to the south. Although the most recent Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 65 kt, given that the eye is becoming better defined, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. Oscar is currently under some northerly to north-northwesterly shear, but the shear is expected to diminish somewhat later today. Also, the tropical cyclone is expected to move through a modestly moist air mass for the next day or two. Therefore, additional strengthening is forecast through 36 hours in agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. Around 48 hours into the forecast period, the shear begins to increase significantly, with notably cooler SSTs. This should lead to the onset of a steady weakening trend. By about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Oscar will become embedded in a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the system becoming an extratropical cyclone at that time. Oscar has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at about 270/11 kt. A mid-level high to the north of the cyclone is expected to quickly shift eastward, while a mid-latitude trough approaches Oscar from the west in a day or so. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Oscar to turn northward to north-northeastward in 24-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Oscar is likely to move quickly northeastward on the eastern side of the trough. There has been some inconsistencies in the track model guidance around 5 days over the last few forecast cycles, with the model consensus, TVCN, shifting significantly southward and then northward. The official forecast track is somewhat to the left of the previous one near the end of the period, to reflect the latest consensus prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.7N 57.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 27.7N 58.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 30.0N 57.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 33.0N 54.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 41.5N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0600Z 46.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
