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| #946525 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 31.Oct.2018) TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Oscar continues to become less tropical-looking in appearance. Central convection is now minimal, and the overall cloud pattern is quite asymmetric, with the main area of dense overcast over the western portion of the circulation, stretching northward over an approaching frontal boundary. The current intensity estimate is 65 kt in accord with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Oscar is expected to merge with the nearby front in 12-18 hours, by which time the global models depict considerable cold and warm advection around the center. This indicates that Oscar will become an extratropical cyclone tonight, but energy from baroclinic processes will likely maintain the system near hurricane strength for the next couple of days. Only gradual weakening is expected thereafter and post-tropical Oscar will likely be a strong cyclone for the next 4 days or so. Post-tropical Oscar is forecast to merge with another extratropical cyclone at high latitudes over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS prediction, which should be appropriate for a mid-latitude system. Oscar is moving quickly toward the northeast, or 035/19 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow on the eastern side of a trough that is passing through Atlantic Canada. In a day or so, post-tropical Oscar should become embedded within the trough and move rapidly northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, aside from some speed differences in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, and is similar to the previous NHC track. Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of Bermuda through today. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 34.1N 53.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 37.6N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 42.2N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 46.0N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 49.7N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 56.0N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z 61.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch |
