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| #9475 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE AND ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED... T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA KEPT AT 80 KNOTS BUT A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IN A FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR OVER JEAN IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST AND UNANIMOUSLY ALL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR JEANE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OR ABOUT 175 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK SO...JEANNE WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE ON A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. JEANNE SHOULD THEN TURN NORTHWARD NOT TOO FAR FROM THE U.S EAST COAST AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RATHER CLOSELY. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST NOW THAT THE GFS HAS JOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL IN MOVING JEAN WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST SCENARIO IS A LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 27.0N 68.7W 80 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 26.8N 68.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 26.5N 69.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.5W 85 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 26.6N 70.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 27.5N 73.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 29.5N 75.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 32.1N 76.0W 60 KT |
