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| #9479 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 21.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004 ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES...LISA CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS A RATHER SMALL BLOB OF CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH SO THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT. THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST...WHICH COULD CUT OFF SOME OF THE INFLOW INTO LISA. ALSO...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE...NOW 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT LISA IS GOING TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD PLUNGE... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE OR TO THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST...GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND FASTER THAN THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.4N 40.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.9N 41.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.4N 43.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 44.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.3N 45.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 16.7N 47.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 48.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 50.0W 75 KT |
