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| #9559 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 AM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 80 KT FROM A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT FROM UW/CIMSS...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A REMNANT OF AN INNER EYEWALL WITH A LARGER OUTER EYEWALL. AS THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT NOW THAT KARL IS BEGINNING RECURVATURE WITH AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH CONTRACTION OR STRENGTHENING OF THE OUTER EYEWALL. KARL SHOULD DECAY ONLY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/12. KARL IS SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL TURN EASTWARD WITH THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT TO CARRY THE FORECAST OUT TO 120 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.9N 49.0W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 28.9N 48.5W 85 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 32.0N 46.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 42.0N 42.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 52.0N 40.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1200Z 59.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1200Z 65.0N 18.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
