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| #9562 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 AM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SMALL...MOSTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. LISA IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE LARGER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST...AS THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/5. IT ALSO IS SUFFERING FROM EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN LISA AND KARL. ALL IN ALL...THIS IS NOT A SCENARIO THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...AND IN FACT...LISA COULD GET ABSORBED BY THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET DROP AN UPPER TROUGH DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY FIVE...AND THIS WOULD TEND TO PROVIDE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR EITHER LISA OR THE DISTURBANCE BEHIND IT. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR LISA. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION PREDICTED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS BY THE GFDL IS NOW BEGINNING...AND SO CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THIS MODEL. LISA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE. IF LISA SURVIVES...IN THIS SCENARIO IT WOULD THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTURBANCE. SUCH A SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY IF LISA'S CIRCULATION REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED...WHILE A STRONGER CYCLONE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SIMPLER WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.9N 41.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.8N 41.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.2N 42.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 13.0N 42.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 13.0N 43.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 14.0N 44.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 16.0N 45.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 48.0W 70 KT |
