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| #9584 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY SHOWED A LARGE EYE BUT THIS IS NOW BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED. KARL SHOULD DECAY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KARL HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14...AND A GENERAL MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL KARL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2-3 DAYS. AFTERTHAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL TURN EASTWARD WITH THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS...UKMET...GFDL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 28.2N 48.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 30.1N 47.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 33.7N 44.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 42.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 44.0N 42.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 53.0N 37.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 26/1800Z 60.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 27/1800Z...NEAR GREENWICH MERIDIAN |
