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| #9600 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:34 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 67 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2300Z 26.9N 89.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 27.5N 91.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 93.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.0N 95.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 30.5N 95.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 96.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW |
