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| #9632 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:08 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE BUT CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. A NOAA PLANE MEASURED 93 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB. METEOROLOGISTS ON THE NOAA RECONAISSANCE PLANE INFORMED BY PHONE THAT THE EYE WAS VERY DISTINCT ON RADAR....AND THAT THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE NEAR JEANNE WAS ABOUT 26C BUT INCREASED TO 28C ABOUT 100 MILES TO THE WEST. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN ALONG THE INCREASE IN SSTS...WOULD FAVOR SOME STREGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS STRONG HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOON...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE GFS...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT BECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP CONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 25.6N 69.3W 85 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 25.6N 70.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 71.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 25.5N 73.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 26.0N 75.0W 95 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 27.5N 78.6W 95 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 34.0N 78.0W 75 KT |
