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| #9636 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:16 PM 22.Sep.2004) TCDAT2 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004 JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE KARL WAS ON A WEAKENING TREND...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 5.0 FROM SAB. COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYE...WHICH ITSELF IS RAGGED BUT A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF THE T-NUMBERS. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT KARL IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A POCKET OF LOWER SHEAR VALUES BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH MORE HOSTILE IN ITS FORECAST PATH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT THAT KARL IS HELD SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN BY 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND ICELAND. KARL IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 025/19. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT THEN KARL WILL MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND UKMET BUT OTHERWISE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED PATH-WISE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE. FORECASTER BERG/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 30.0N 47.3W 95 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 32.4N 45.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 36.4N 43.6W 80 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 41.6N 42.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 47.0N 41.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0000Z 56.0N 31.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 27/0000Z 63.0N 14.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 28/0000Z...EAST OF PRIME MERIDIAN |
